February 2012 NBA Events
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NBA: NBA Top Weekend Power Trends 4/9-4/11
2010-04-09
The final full regular season weekend of the 2009-10 NBA schedule is upon us and there is still plenty of sorting out to do yet before the playoffs commence next week. The seeding beyond the #2 spot in the East is still to be determined and in fact, the #8 seed is still up for grabs between Toronto and Chicago, who go into the weekend in a virtual tie with four games remaining. In the West, the eight playoff teams have already been determined for awhile, but the seeding of #2 through #8 is a complete mess. Four teams are separated by a single game for the #2 seed, while three others are tied for the #6. It would be impossible at this point to project the eventual playoff matchups. As such, let’s go through this weekend’s games and see if we can help clear up the picture a bit. Of course, we’ll also reveal the list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to consider as you handicap the action.
The Friday schedule of 13 games is absolutely loaded with key playoff implicating contests. In fact, in 11 of the games, at least one of the teams is hoping to either improve or maintain its playoff standing. In three of the games, both teams have a lot on the line. Let’s go through those. In Atlanta, the Raptors and Hawks will meet. Toronto is of course, tied with Chicago for the final East playoff spot. The Raptors have struggled on the road this season, going 14-25 SU & 17-21-1 ATS and will be matched against one of the league’s toughest hosts. The Hawks are 32-7 SU & 24-15 ATS at home but will be looking to snap a four game ATS winless skid. In Oklahoma City, the Thunder host the Suns. Phoenix is in the race for the #2 spot out West and comes in hot, having won 11 of 12 games. OKC might be wilting under the pressure of the playoff hunt, with just a 7-6 record in its L13 games. The Thunder still hope to avoid the #8 spot and a matchup with the Lakers. Finally, in Portland, the Mavericks are in town. The Blazers are another team that seems to have gotten hot at the right time, with an 11-2 mark in their L13 games. They’ve won six straight games at home. Dallas is headed the opposite direction, with a 6-6 mark in its L12, and opening a 3-game road swing here.
On Saturday, the schedule lightens a bit with just eight games on tap, but two will figure prominently in the eventual final standings in each conference. In the East, the Celtics visit the Bucks in a potential first round playoff preview. If the playoffs started today, that would be the matchup. In fact, the teams still play each other one more time in the regular season, that being on the final day, Wednesday. Milwaukee won the most recent matchup between the teams, 86-84 in early March, but that was with Andrew Bogut in the lineup. The Bucks are still getting used to life without him since his horrific elbow injury but have still won three straight games in his absence headed into the weekend. With a current 7-game ATS winning streak, Milwaukee owns the best overall mark in the league at 50-26-2 ATS. Out West, the big game puts San Antonio in Denver. The Nuggets came up with a big win at home on Thursday vs. the Lakers to retake the lead for the #2 spot in the playoff race. If they win out in their final three games, they’ll clinch the spot. The Spurs have not given up on a Top 4 seed and home court for the first round yet, but will need to win out and get help to accomplish that goal. The return of PG Tony Parker this past week should give them a lift.
On Sunday, there are seven games, and all but one will affect the playoff chase. The ABC doubleheader pits Orlando and Cleveland followed by Portland and the Lakers. Unfortunately for the network, the two host clubs have little to play for this next week and in fact, in their outings on Thursday night, stars LeBron James and Kobe Bryant actually sat out for rest. Of the four teams, the game means most to Portland, who hopes to win while avoiding looking ahead to a Monday game at home vs. Oklahoma City. A win could also help the Blazers avoid a potential first round rematch with the Lakers in the playoffs. Perhaps the biggest game on Sunday is one that would have normally flown under the radar, a 6:00 PM ET start between Chicago and Toronto. With the teams having gone into the weekend in a tie for the #8 spot, the game is crucial to each club’s playoff hopes. It is most critical for the Bulls though, as the Raptors own the tiebreakers between the teams by virtue of two head-to-head wins early in the season. On top of that, the Raptors face Detroit and New York in their final two games while the Bulls have the Celtics and Bobcats yet to play.
With so much big-time action on tap for the weekend, you’ll want to get to your handicapping early. Hopefully these Top StatFox Power Trends help do the trick:
Friday, 04/09/2010
(703) NEW YORK vs. (704) ORLANDO
NEW YORK is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 101.1, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 2*)
(705) WASHINGTON vs. (706) BOSTON
BOSTON is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. The average score was BOSTON 101, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 3*)
(705) WASHINGTON vs. (706) BOSTON
WASHINGTON is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 92.4, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
(715) LA LAKERS vs. (716) MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 11-30 ATS (-22 Units) at home against teams with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 94.8, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 3*)
(719) UTAH vs. (720) NEW ORLEANS
UTAH is 32-10 ATS (+21 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was UTAH 105.7, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 04/10/2010
(501) NEW JERSEY vs. (502) INDIANA
NEW JERSEY is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 87.1, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 3*)
(509) BOSTON vs. (510) MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) vs good shooting teams making >=46% of FG atts in 2nd half of this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 100.3, OPPONENT 97.7 - (Rating = 2*)
(511) SAN ANTONIO vs. (512) DENVER
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The average score was DENVER 98, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 2*)
(515) GOLDEN STATE vs. (516) LA CLIPPERS
GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ PPG this season. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.5, OPPONENT 103.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 04/11/2010
(701) ORLANDO vs. (702) CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 97.8, OPPONENT 87.6 - (Rating = 3*)
(705) MIAMI vs. (706) NEW YORK
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The average score was MIAMI 103.4, OPPONENT 88.4 - (Rating = 2*)
(709) MINNESOTA vs. (710) NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS is 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) vs poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 103.1, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 4*)
NBA: Orlando still favored, just by less in Game 4
2009-06-11
The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.
Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)
This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.
Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.
For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.
Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.
Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.
Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.
NBA: Detroit rising underdog to Boston (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-01-30
If the Detroit Pistons were a pinball game, they would be on “tilt” based on their performance this year. These Pistons are much like the Detroit auto industry, they look old fashion, seem to make few correct decisions and are just biding their time under the illusion something good will come their way. This weekend, reality pays a call with two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, Boston and Cleveland, pays a call to the Motor City. Can the Pistons pull out either game as a home dog, or have they slipped from the East’s elite? Put your money where your thoughts after examining the LIVE ODDS & BETTING TRENDS on these key games.
Since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce in Boston, The Celtics are 8-3 SU and ATS over Detroit, including taking them out in six games in the playoffs last spring.
At 25-19 (19-25 ATS), the Pistons have all the signs of an older model car who has been thru one too many Midwestern winters, as rust spots are starting to emerge. Detroit has won three times in last 10 games, yet like a Detroit automaker CEO, defiant to the end. In being asked about this weekend’s matchups, Rasheed Wallace had this to say, “We're ready for the challenge, though it may not look like it from what our record states,".
The Pistons' veterans are loathe to speak of regular-season contests as statement games but they certainly have something to prove this weekend. They can send a message to both teams that they're still a viable contender. Wallace added, “…..Like I said, it’s determination. We’re determined and we definitely have to put our foot on the gas coming into All-Star break and we’re just going to have to drive forward.”
Where NBA sports bettors have doubts is looking at Detroit’s home record, which shows a pedestrian 13-9 mark and just 7-15 spread record. The Pistons have outscored their opponents by less than a point (0.8) at The Palace at Auburn Hills and are 1-5 ATS in last six home tilts. Considering tonight’s opponent is Boston, those wagering saw the Celtics favored by five points at Sportsbook.com and other wagering outlets and pounded them up to present 6.5.
Boston (38-9, 27-20 ATS) is back on track, seeking a 10th straight victory. Since losing seven of nine after unprecedented start, even for this franchise, the Celtics have won nine in a row (8-1 ATS) by an average of 16.5 points per game. They are 45-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.
The Celtics are brimming with confidence, having beaten Dallas by 24 and Sacramento by 19, shooting over 54 percent and scoring a total of 243 points. They are 20-11 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season and 30-11 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more three-point shots.
Detroit doesn’t have the firepower to play in a high scoring affair. With the total set at 180 by the oddsmakers, this would suggest Detroit should at least have a chance to cover the spread since they are 9-1 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent, with the average scoring margin almost even. Of course Boston has no problem playing this style and is 10-2 UNDER in road games after playing a home game this season, though the winning margin is only 2.5-points per game.
This is the opener for Friday’s ESPN doubleheader, which starts at 7 Eastern and Boston, is 20-6 ATS versus defensive teams forcing 14 or less turnovers a game this season.
StatFox Power Line – Boston by 11